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ENLARGE
If March isn't a wet month, forecasters predict another year of drought in Summit County. Forecasts for flows into Dillon Reservoir call for 75 percent of normal. Here, the Blue River trickles into Dillon Reservoir at Farmer's Korner.
SUMMIT COUNTY - When National Resources Conservation Services snow survey supervisor Mike Gillespie looks at the data in front of him, he doesn't see that Summit County will recover this summer from a drought that has persisted for at least six years.
Snowpack in the Colorado River Basin is 98 percent of average and 118 percent of last year.
"But in Summit County, things are not as good," he said. "You're at 81 percent of average and 102 percent of last year."
Snowpack in the Colorado River Basin is 98 percent of average and 118 percent of last year.
"But in Summit County, things are not as good," he said. "You're at 81 percent of average and 102 percent of last year."
"If there's going to be any recovery, it has to be pretty soon," Gillespie said. "We'll max out our snowpack by April 1, mid-April at the latest. The chances of that occurring are not all that great. Even if we have a wet month, while that certainly will help, it's not likely to improve the runoff that much."
He said the West is a picture of extremes. Southern Colorado, New Mexico, California and Utah have record-setting snowpacks. That immediately drops off in Washington, Oregon, Wyoming and Northern Colorado, which are blowing away record lows.
"It's a pretty amazing year," Gillespie said.
And average temperatures over the past five months have been dramatically warmer.
He said the West is a picture of extremes. Southern Colorado, New Mexico, California and Utah have record-setting snowpacks. That immediately drops off in Washington, Oregon, Wyoming and Northern Colorado, which are blowing away record lows.
"It's a pretty amazing year," Gillespie said.
And average temperatures over the past five months have been dramatically warmer.
In October 2004, average temperatures were 1.8 degrees above normal. Last November, the average temperature was 2.79 degrees above normal, in December, the average was 3.4 degrees warmer; in January it was 7.92 degrees warmer and in February it was 6.0 degrees warmer.
Streamflow forecasts do nothing to boost his enthusiasm.
Dillon Reservoir is forecast to receive 75 percent of average during the spring runoff, and Green Mountain Reservoir is expected to receive 82 percent of average.
Streamflow forecasts do nothing to boost his enthusiasm.
Dillon Reservoir is forecast to receive 75 percent of average during the spring runoff, and Green Mountain Reservoir is expected to receive 82 percent of average.
"It doesn't appear this is going to be one of the years that contributes to bringing back reservoir storage," Gillespie said. "Seventy-five percent inflows to the reservoir isn't going to help."
Basinwide, reservoirs are at 78 percent of average - lower than they were last year.
Jane Stebbins can be reached at (970) 668-3998, ext. 228, or jstebbins@summitdaily.com.
Basinwide, reservoirs are at 78 percent of average - lower than they were last year.
Jane Stebbins can be reached at (970) 668-3998, ext. 228, or jstebbins@summitdaily.com.
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