FRISCO - Offering both half-empty and half-full scenarios about state and national economic affairs, Tucker Hart Adams docked in at Frisco Wednesday, cautioning her audience about investing too much belief in a so-called new economy.

President of the Colorado-based Adams Group, Adams is a long-standing voice in examining and forecasting Colorado's economics.

Speaking to a breakfast crowd from the Summit Association of Realtors, the economist reminded folks of the 1990s, when the stock market boomed and investors insisted that things were going to be different - and stay that way. People today look at a rebounding economy and some of them believe things have really, truly changed this time around.

"I don't think there's a new economy this time," she said.

On the positive side, Adams admitted the nation is enjoying its fifth consecutive year of economic expansion. Employment is at an all-time high nationally, with almost 4.8 million jobs entering the economy since the low point of the current business cycle in 2003.

Inflation, Adams said, has been "amazingly well-behaved," averaging 3.4 percent nationally, and long-term interest rates remain relatively low.

But looking at the "half-empty" scenario, Adams said that despite employment being at an all-time high, the nation has still seen the weakest jobs recovery in half a century. For about 80 percent of Americans, jobs growth has not translated into income growth. Wages rose a scant 2.4 percent for 2005, but throw in 3.4 percent inflation and that comes to real wages dropping 0.9 percent. Add in the fact that many employers are asking workers to kick in more for health coverage, and many American workers are feeling a palpable decline in their take-home pay.

She said, too, "there's a lot of unemployment out there that isn't reflected in the official data." For example, workers who lost their full-time jobs may have found only part-time employment. In addition, she said, "there's a whole group that has completely dropped out of the labor force" that is no longer accounted for.

What's in the future? Adams said that nationally, much depends on if and how much foreign investors want to cut their purchases of U.S. debt. A sizable cut would cause long-term interest rates to rise, and cause already stressed American consumers to cut their spending, she said.

Long story short, Adams said the national economy would likely be in reasonably good shape through 2006, but that she wouldn't place any bets for next year.

Zeroing in on Colorado, Adams said the state was hit harder by the recession than most places, and has been one of the last to recover from the burst technology bubble. The good news: It's been a good year for tourism so far, due largely to heavy snow that fell early and stayed for the duration of the season.

"Consumers are willing to spend (retail spending was up 7.3 percent in 2005), and businesses are willing to spend," she said.

Fueled by the oil and natural gas boom in Weld, Mesa and Garfield counties, the state's mineral industry posted $10.3 billion in 2005, replacing tourism as the state's second largest industry (after manufacturing). That's up from a record $8.5 billion in 2004.

So that's all good news, no? An audience member told Adams that real estate has been selling so briskly in Summit County that it's hard to keep enough inventory to satisfy buyers.

Adams said that local Realtors would certainly be the experts on trends in Summit County, and that "clearly this market is driven by some different factors." But she cautioned against thinking that Summit County or Colorado are protected from recession.

She pointed out some troubling indicators elsewhere in Colorado. The state recently emerged with the highest foreclosure rate in the country, reflecting a 31 percent increase in new foreclosures in March. In turn, Adams County - one of the hardest hit counties in Colorado -- has seen real estate prices drop 18 percent. Statewide, bankruptcy increased 55 percent last year, far above the national increase of 31.6 percent.

Adams blames the trend in part to speculators and "some of the exotic mortgages that are out there," which enable buyers to get into a home with no money down and pay only interest.

"This is not a pretty picture," she said.

Adams also believes that Colorado is overbuilt, with 35,000-40,000 more homes than what the population supports. She conceded that second homeowners comprise a higher percentage of buyers here than they do elsewhere, and that building numbers reflect some homes that are being replaced. But that cannot account completely for the gap between homes and buyers, she said.

"There's something out of whack, and it worries me."

Adams was asked about the impact of Baby Boomers, who are coming into retirement years and who ostensibly have inherited enough money to put some sizable influence into the economy. Adams advised not to bank on the idea that there will somehow be a massive transfer of money.

"I just don't buy that they've got all this wealth," she said. "I don't think it's the solution to the whole issue."