Hurricane forecast team downgrades expected number of hurricanes

DENVER - The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team Friday called for a slightly below-average hurricane season with only five hurricanes instead of the seven earlier forecast. It is second time in a month the team had revised downward its forecast.

"Despite the lower predictions, residents living along the U.S. coastline should always be prepared for major storms," forecaster William Gray said. Two of the hurricanes will be intense, the team predicted.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ernesto was scheduled to be downgraded to a rain storm at 11 a.m. EDT, said Frank Lepore of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Hurricane John, meanwhile, was forcing evacuations in the Pacific.

Gray and CSU forecaster Philip Klotzbach last month called for a total of 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin this year, down by two from their prediction May 31. On average, there are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense per year.

"We predict September and October will exhibit characteristics of a more average year based on the activity so far this season and climate signals through August,"' Klotzbach said. "Current conditions in the Atlantic indicate that we will now see a slightly below-average hurricane season with far less activity than was experienced in each of the last two years," he said.

He identified higher levels of West African dust over the Atlantic, and a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific indicating a potential El Nino event this fall, and dryer tropical Atlantic mid-level moisture fields.

The team is still predicting 13 named storms, down from last month's prediction of 15.

The National Hurricane Center last month revised its forecast downward, calling for 12 to 15 named storms with seven to nine hurricanes.

The team predicted September would bring five named storms including three hurricanes, two of which will be major. For October, the team predicted two named storms including one hurricane.

On the Net:

CSU Forecast report: http://newsinfo.colostate.edu/index.asp