SUMMIT COUNTY — Based on snowpack thus far this winter, paddlers and rafters may be able to anticipate a good rafting season, Denver Water engineer Bob Steger said, looking ahead at planned reservoir operations for the next few months.

It’s still too early to say exactly how and when Denver Water will release stored water from Dillon Reservoir, but Steger said the utility is already running computer models to determine likely scenarios.

Those models are based on the current snowpack, plus an estimate of how much more snow may fall based on past weather patterns from March 18 onward.

“We get a bunch of plausible inflow scenarios from the U.S. Geological Survey,” Steger said. That data is combined with weather forecasts for the next several weeks.

In a wet spring scenario, Denver Water might have to make larger and earlier releases from the reservoir to make room for snowmelt.

If spring ends up being dry, Denver Water might not have to do much more than watch the reservoir “fill and spill,” he said.

If temperatures and precipitation are close to average, the operations will fall somewhere in between, he explained.

As always, Steger said Denver Water has to juggle a variety of factors and interests that are sometimes at odds with each other. The primary goal is to fill the reservoir, he said. Another key objective is to minimize the flood risk below Dillon Dam. At the same time, water managers are looking at whether they’ll have enough water to make releases for endangered native Colorado River fish farther downstream, and how to ensure enough water for recreation.

“They are all important, but some are in conflict with each other. For example, if all we were worried about was flood prevention, we’d be evacuating all sorts of water right now,” Steger said. But that wouldn’t mesh with some of the other goals, he said.

Bob Berwyn can be reached at (970) 331-5996, or at bberwyn@summitdaily.com.