McCain and Obama on Russia

Russia was a backwater issue in American foreign policy circles throughout the 1990s. Many diplomats, intelligence officials, and international affairs specialists discounted Moscow’s importance. It was a time when Russia’s economic conditions deteriorated (America’s current financial hardships pale in comparison to what the Russians experienced). It was a time when the Kremlin witnessed a humiliating military stalemate in Chechnya. Moscow also lost its ability to shape foreign affairs. A majority of the Soviet Union’s satellites joined NATO and the European Union. Many Russians felt humiliated and frustrated during the period; a significant number were not saddened when the era’s president, Boris Yeltsin, died last year.

And then Vladimir Putin came along....

The former Kremlin leader re-energized the Russian people. He revitalized the country’s international clout. Putin brought the Russian bear out of hibernation. Moscow’s resilience is attributable to high global energy prices — the backbone of Russia’s economy. It has also benefited from Europe’s dependence upon Russia for most of its natural gas and oil needs. The Kremlin has utilized this fact as an instrument in its disputes with various European countries. European and American leaders now realize neither can formulate their foreign policies without considering how Moscow might or might not respond.

Breckenridge and the surrounding area has a sizable Russian, Ukrainian, Byelorussian, Moldavian, Polish, and Czech community. These are individuals who probably see the current-day Russia with pride and fear. I suspect many still have families living in their native countries — families who worry whether Russia will cut off their heating oil during the upcoming winter months. It’s an event which has occurred periodically over the last couple of years. They may also lose sleep wondering if/how the Kremlin will flex its military muscle, like Russia recently did in Georgia.

The McCain and Obama campaigns share similar dreads towards Russia. The situation requires asking, “How will both respond to a Russian bear on the prowl — a bear that is eager to use its claws?”

Both camps are apprehensive about Russia. McCain and Obama support strengthening U.S.-European ties to counter Russia’s strategic reemergence. Each campaign condemned Moscow’s invasion of Tbilisi. Both advocate Georgia’s efforts to join NATO. McCain supports NATO membership for the Ukraine. McCain additionally condones reconsidering the Kremlin’s membership in the G-8–and reevaluating Russia’s bid to join the World Trade Organization. No doubt McCain’s stance is linked to concern about the disappearance of Russian non-government civil society and political opposition since Putin took over. Obama’s website failed to detail additional steps it might consider to counter Russian aggression.

The Obama campaign’s Russia policy is more augmented. It believes a key related problem is energy. The Kremlin has used its monopoly over Europe’s oil and natural gas supplies as a foreign policy weapon. It reduced and/or cut off Estonia’s, Lithuania’s, Ukraine’s, and Georgia’s energy supplies during recent disputes. The Europeans experienced a rude awakening to the Kremlin’s power in 2006. Moscow turned off Kiev’s natural gas and oil supplies until a pricing controversy was resolved. Russia’s action directly impacted Europe, since many European countries and the Ukraine use the same energy delivery pipelines. The Obama campaign realizes the situation is problematic. It supports reducing American/European reliance on petroleum. Obama contends this will weaken Russia’s monopoly over Europe’s energy supplies. The campaign further argues this measure will strengthen European and America’s negotiating position towards Russia.

The Obama campaign sees benefits from working with Russia. Enhanced relations will allow both countries to decrease the spread of nuclear weapon’s technology, reduce their nuclear arsenals and address the al-Qaida/Taliban threat. Obama also argues improved cooperation will increase investment and trade opportunities for both countries. And finally, the campaign sees working with Moscow as an opportunity to promote American values among the Russian people.

Russia will be a prime concern for an Obama or McCain administration. It’s a worrisome issue for Summit County residents originating from the former Soviet Union and/or the Warsaw Pact states. How either presidential campaign deals with Russia will influence their vote. This is especially the case since many probably still have relatives in those areas.



Matthew Kennedy is a Breckenridge resident who recently received a master's degree from the Diplomatic Academy of London. He has lived in Asia, Europe, and Russia. Comments or questions can be directed to intl.affairs@yahoo.com.