Site search
sponsored by
News
For those of us keeping watch on economic indicators, a question comes to mind: Do you remember how the recession was announced?
The answer, of course, is it wasn't.
For much of 2007, and virtually all of 2008, consumers and companies knew something was wrong. Certainly locally we saw it as real estate sales trended down, visitor traffic slowed and reservations for the winter ski season all but fell off a cliff.
But any time it was brought up it seemed as if someone on Wall Street or at the Treasury Department or in the White House would essentially say, “No, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the GDP, so technically, we're not in a recession yet.”
Then, on December 1, 2008, it was made official. It wasn't announced, it was just acknowledged.
And not only were we in a recession come last December, but the same folks who had said all along that we were not also acknowledged that, in reviewing the data, we had technically been in a recession for a full year.
Why re-hash all of this? Because: A recovery will be “announced” (although we should probably say acknowledged) in virtually the same way.
To say that a recession exists when there are two quarters of declining GDP is not entirely accurate. The basis of a recession involves much more than that, including real trade and manufacturing sales, personal income rates, inventory liquidations and more (including two consecutive quarters of a drop in the GDP). And we don't suggest we know all of the factors or how the math actually works.
But the important point is this: These measures are taken over time. And by the time all of these indicators are reviewed and restated and they confirm that the recession is officially ended, the recovery will have been underway for months.
A recession is not one singular event with a clear beginning or end. It is a set of complex criteria, which relies on historic data more than today's information or tomorrow's forecast.
Summer is upon us in the High Country. Visitor traffic is increasing and the dollars spent by visitors are also increasing exponentially across the market. Is it a flush of dollars? No, but it is the beginning, we trust, of a recovery. And we look forward to the day when our government comes to acknowledge what the local markets will have already recognized — that things are, indeed, beginning to move forward.
The answer, of course, is it wasn't.
For much of 2007, and virtually all of 2008, consumers and companies knew something was wrong. Certainly locally we saw it as real estate sales trended down, visitor traffic slowed and reservations for the winter ski season all but fell off a cliff.
But any time it was brought up it seemed as if someone on Wall Street or at the Treasury Department or in the White House would essentially say, “No, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the GDP, so technically, we're not in a recession yet.”
Then, on December 1, 2008, it was made official. It wasn't announced, it was just acknowledged.
And not only were we in a recession come last December, but the same folks who had said all along that we were not also acknowledged that, in reviewing the data, we had technically been in a recession for a full year.
Why re-hash all of this? Because: A recovery will be “announced” (although we should probably say acknowledged) in virtually the same way.
To say that a recession exists when there are two quarters of declining GDP is not entirely accurate. The basis of a recession involves much more than that, including real trade and manufacturing sales, personal income rates, inventory liquidations and more (including two consecutive quarters of a drop in the GDP). And we don't suggest we know all of the factors or how the math actually works.
But the important point is this: These measures are taken over time. And by the time all of these indicators are reviewed and restated and they confirm that the recession is officially ended, the recovery will have been underway for months.
A recession is not one singular event with a clear beginning or end. It is a set of complex criteria, which relies on historic data more than today's information or tomorrow's forecast.
Summer is upon us in the High Country. Visitor traffic is increasing and the dollars spent by visitors are also increasing exponentially across the market. Is it a flush of dollars? No, but it is the beginning, we trust, of a recovery. And we look forward to the day when our government comes to acknowledge what the local markets will have already recognized — that things are, indeed, beginning to move forward.
