As blizzard-like conditions pummel Colorado’s mountains, safety officials are warning of increased avalanche risk heading into the holiday weekend. 

Skiers and riders eyeing a trip to the backcountry may want to reconsider, Colorado Avalanche Information Center Deputy Director Brian Lazar said. While fresh snow is likely to stoke excitement, its timing after weeks of dry weather could catalyze larger and more dangerous slides than those recorded earlier this season.

“The big message is we had a prolonged dry spell that had a silver lining of low avalanche danger in many places, but that has all come to an end,” Lazar said. “We are unlikely to see low danger in our mountains for the foreseeable future.”

Low-precipitation storms have led to snow layers that, up to this point, have been dry and fluffy in consistency. Experts commonly refer to this as “sugar snow,” which is so dry that even packing a snowball can be a challenge. 

But back-to-back storms that began Tuesday afternoon and are forecast to continue through the weekend are adding heavier snow on top, which adds weight to what Lazar called a “weak layer.”

“Just like any structure, you don’t want to build it with its weakest materials under its strongest,” he said. 

It’s a combination that makes mountain terrain ripe for avalanches. 

As of Jan. 10, there have been 419 avalanches recorded within the past month, according to the center’s data. Most have been naturally occurring, and just over half are rated “D1” which signifies an avalanche’s danger level.

A D1 avalanche generally poses low to no risk to people, Lazar said. But that risk quickly increases with a D1.5 or D2 avalanche, which can weigh 100 or more tons and can be large enough to bury, injure or kill a person. 

Just under half of all the avalanches reported this past month have been either a D1.5 or D2. Lazar said he expects those types of slides to only increase this weekend and moving forward.

The dangers come as backcountry visitation is likely to surge over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend. 

“There’s a dramatic uptick in avalanche danger coming with a holiday weekend, and that is a recipe that makes us nervous,” Lazar said. 

The intense snowfall will be accompanied by high winds that have the potential to snow onto leeward-facing slopes, which increases the load on top of weak layers. Wind can also break snowflakes into smaller pieces that pack together more tightly. This, in turn, can create stiff slabs over weak layers. 

Megan Sullivan, Vail Pass operations lead for the White River National Forest, said she’s seen more windswept terrain during her field missions to backcountry areas along Vail Pass. When Sullivan and her team are out, usually posting signage and opening more terrain for recreation, they’re also keeping an eye on visible signs for avalanches and coordinating with the Colorado Avalanche Information Center. 

“We have a lot of ridges that get wind-scoured,” Sullivan said. “Generally speaking, it’s unstable everywhere.”

For backcountry-terrain seekers, Sullivan said it’s more important than ever to be vigilant of your surroundings. 

While areas with less than a 30-degree angle tend to be safe, avalanches can still reach these spots if triggered from steeper terrain above. And because terrain is always changing, a slope that was once safe may not be safe any longer. 

“Stop and take a look around. … Just because there’s a track through it and it looks fine, doesn’t mean it’s (safe) for the second group,” Sullivan said. 

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Anne Gasper, Vail Pass program lead for the Forest Service, added that outdoor recreationists should also be wary of hidden obstacles, from rocks to small trees, hidden underneath a blanket of fresh snow. 

“There’s still a lot of obstacles that will just be freshly hidden from the snow,” Gasper said. “The conditions may look better than they really are.”

With snowfall set to continue through the weekend and into early next week, Lazar, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center deputy director, said regularly checking conditions will be critical. 

Experts rank avalanche risks in backcountry regions on a five-point scale, ranging from low to extreme. As of Wednesday, Jan. 10, most of the state was ranked as moderate to considerable, but Lazar said he anticipates some areas may be moved to a high danger rating this weekend.

“We need very conservative terrain selection to stay safe,” he said. “Mother nature makes the rules, and we’ve got to play by them if we want to stay safe.”

Up-to-date avalanche information can be found on the resource center’s website, Avalanche.state.co.us/.