Breck businesses, the answer is quite simple | SummitDaily.com
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Breck businesses, the answer is quite simple

Bill Dautel

In reference to the “Sales revenue down” article on May 30, the following facts are just a few of the numerous reasons for this shortfall.

Business cycles here and around the world, for 200-plus years, have an average 20-year boom period and 20-year bust period. The United States just completed a 19-year boom, ending early 2000.

From 1914 to present, the Fed has lowered interest rates 20 times. Eighteen of those times, an economic up cycle followed within a year. Two times, this did not occur. The first, the Fed lowered interest rates eight times from 1929 to 1930. Depressionary times started soon after. Today, the Fed lowered interest rates 11 times. Seventeen months later, we have yet to have an overall economic turnaround.

Lastly, individual and corporate debt in this country are at the highest levels ever in this country. Prosperity rarely survives on an empty wallet.

The following are some of the facts occurring as we are entering only the third year of the ongoing bust. Registered unemployment again at a new 19-year high. High-tech (office buildings) alley in Denver has a vacancy rate of more than 30 percent. First quarter of 2002, 379,012 consumers and businesses declared bankruptcy (second worst). 2001 had 1.49 million bankruptcies. In the first quarter of 2002, 94 companies defaulted $33.6 billion in corporate bonds. Same pace as last year.

We are seeing a normal cycle take place. There will be short upswings. But the overall national trend is down for years to come.


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