Local fire officials want you to know that just because you might see dark clouds instead of sunny skies, that doesn’t mean wildfire danger is low. 

They say wildfire risk in Summit County remains “very high” following an extended dry period at the start of July, and they expect that to continue based on what’s in the forecast. They say they are wary of it, and there doesn’t appear to be relief from the unfavorable trend in the near future despite forecasts that call for chances for rain and thunderstorms. 

Red, White and Blue Fire Protection District division chief Matt Benedict said officials “aren’t super thrilled” with the weather July has delivered thus far and what it is expected to deliver in the coming weeks. He said that’s because they aren’t seeing weather patterns produce the type of precipitation, and in turn moisture, needed to bring the fire risk down.

“We’re just not seeing a (strong) monsoon setup, and that’s a big one for us this time of year (in terms of fire danger),” he said. “Usually, it’s very evident when the monsoon starts, and we’re just not seeing the beginning of it.”

He said fire officials can generally rely on moisture brought by monsoon season in July to help prevent grass, trees and other fuel sources from being too dry and susceptible to catching fire. 

The North American Monsoon is a seasonal change in wind patterns that accompanies the summer heat and allows for continuous moisture to flow from the Gulf of California into the southwest region of the country, according to the Colorado State University’s Climate Center.

National Weather Service Boulder forecaster Bruno Rodriguez said this occurs as a result of the jet stream, or the air current that typically moves from east to west around the globe and is associated with storm tracks and patterns, being further north. When the jet stream is further north, high pressure systems build to the south of it in places like the Four Corners region. 

He said the exact position of a monsoon can change daily, and the location of it can have varying impacts on weather in areas near the Four Corner region. For instance, during a monsoonal setup, when a high pressure system is to the east, areas to the west like Summit County will have a low pressure system and better chance of precipitation and moisture.

Benedict said fire officials have been discussing how it appears Colorado’s High Country has been on the edge of the monsoon setup, meaning a monsoon’s influence is felt but to a much lesser extent. He said this is because being on the edge of one can bring thunder and lightning storms, and lightning and wildfire season don’t mix well, especially when fuels are pretty dry like now. He said Wednesday is the day officials are most concerned about this week. 

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Rodriguez said Wednesday is going to be the only day this week where there’s a low chance of thunderstorms because a ridge of high pressure will be over Summit County. He said the pressure will create a stable and warm environment, with temperatures expected to be in the high 70s or low 80s. Benedict said the humidity is expected to be in the 12% 15% range, which also indicates to fire officials that the area isn’t in the middle of, or even very close to, a fully set up monsoonal pattern. 

According to Rodriguez, the rest of the week’s weather will be periodic clouds with chances of afternoon thunderstorms. Saturday has the highest chance of storms, and things are expected to dry up Sunday.

Things to remember when fire risk is ‘very high’

Benedict said while it’s camping season, Summit County is under a Stage 1 fire restriction, which means fires are only permitted in permanent fire rings at official Forest Service campgrounds or at certain residences that have obtained the right permits from their fire department. There are also restrictions on where you can smoke, types of machinery that can be used and other regulations aimed at preventing fires from starting.

He said a camp fire can be a “significant threat” currently since fuels are fairly dry and the likelihood of embers from the fire spreading is strong. 

With potential fire fuels, particularly timber, being dry, he said it’s imperative people remember to create defensible space around their homes. Creating defensible space entails clearing the 5-foot perimeter of a home from anything that can serve as fuel. The next 30-foot perimeter of the home should also have limited fuels. The National Fire Protection agency said trees should be spaced out a minimum of 12-feet apart in the zone. The next perimeter extending to 100 feet out from the home, can have more fuels than the other two, but it still shouldn’t be too dense. The National Fire Protection agency said trees should be spaced out 6 feet apart in the zone.