Colorado’s economy is expected to cool, but not enter a recession, economists tell state lawmakers

Better-than-expected tax revenue in the final months of the 2021-22 fiscal year mean Colorado taxpayers are now expected to receive refund checks of $750 per individual filer and $1,500 for joint filers starting in late August

Jesse Paul
The Colorado Sun
Visitors and residents walk along Main Street in Breckenridge on Friday, July 2, 2021. According to two recent forecasts, state officials believe Colorado will avoid a recession this year.
Tripp Fay/For the Summit Daily News

DENVER — Inflation and tightening monetary policy on the federal level are expected to cool Colorado’s economy in the coming months, according to quarterly economic and tax revenue forecasts by nonpartisan staff and the governor’s office presented to the legislature’s Joint Budget Committee on Tuesday.

Both forecasts predicted that Colorado will avoid a recession despite national chatter about the U.S. economy entering a major slump.

The big takeaway: State lawmakers are expected to have more money to fund government services in the coming years as revenue continues to exceed the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights cap on government growth and spending, which is calculated through population growth and inflation. When the TABOR cap is exceeded, Coloradans get tax breaks and, if the excess is large enough, which it is expected to be for the foreseeable future, refund checks. 

Rep. Julie McCluskie, a Dillon Democrat and chair of the Joint Budget Committee, said she is cautiously optimistic.

“If I’ve learned anything through the pandemic and our recovery it’s that it is hard to predict what comes next,” she said. “So I do think we need to be prepared but I am hopeful that we are not going to see a recession. Fingers crossed.”


Support Local Journalism

Support Local Journalism

As a Summit Daily News reader, you make our work possible.

Summit Daily is embarking on a multiyear project to digitize its archives going back to 1989 and make them available to the public in partnership with the Colorado Historic Newspapers Collection. The full project is expected to cost about $165,000. All donations made in 2023 will go directly toward this project.

Every contribution, no matter the size, will make a difference.