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Colorado’s lagging snowpack spikes following back-to-back storms, now nears 30-year average 

Statewide snowpack now sits at 90% of the 30-year-median, brightening forecasts for a healthy runoff period during the spring and summer

A skier rides a lift at Loveland Ski Area on Sunday, Jan. 14. Colorado's mountains were blanketed with feet of snow over the past week, pushing the once-lagging statewide snowpack nearer to its average.
Casey Day/Loveland Ski Area

Despite an uneventful start to the winter season, Colorado’s snowpack now nears the historical average thanks to multiple storms that pummeled the state over the past week. 

According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Colorado’s snowpack is at 90% of the 30-year-median as of Tuesday, Jan. 16. It marks a major turnaround from the beginning of the month, when statewide snowpack hovered between 60% and 70% of the median

“It’s been pretty significant, the jump that we’ve received in the last roughly week or so,” said James Heath, division engineer for the Colorado Division of Water Resources.



Before this past week, “We were tracking alongside some of our worst years for snowpack,” such as 2002, 2012 and 2018, Heath said. But double-digit snowfall, which for some mountain areas translated to multiple feet of snow, caused snowpack levels to surge. 

Some regions are trending above the state average, such as the Colorado Headwaters River Basin, which includes central and northern mountain areas. As of Tuesday, the basin was at 96% of the average



Snowpack measures the amount of water held in the snow, which is referred to as the snow water equivalent. In an average season for the Colorado Headwaters, the snow water equivalent will peak at 17.5 inches, representing the amount of water predicted to melt and become runoff in the late spring and early summer. 

Within the past week, the snowpack netted roughly 2 inches of water, rising from 5.4 inches on Jan. 9 to 7.7 inches on Jan. 16. Tracking the snow water equivalent can be a critical indicator for how full reservoirs will be come summer. 

U.S. Department of Agriculture/Courtesy image
Snowpack for the Colorado Headwaters River Basin, which includes central and northern mountain areas, surged to 96% of the 30-year-median on Jan. 16 after a week of back-to-back snow storms.
U.S. Department of Agriculture/Courtesy image

“As soon as we hit that median peak, that’s where I can relax a little bit,” Heath said. “If we hit that median peak around 17.5 inches, we should have a pretty normal runoff at that point for total season volume.” 

Last season peaked at 21.7 for the basin, well above average, according to Heath. That led to multiple reservoirs “filling and spilling” and helped fuel a brief period this past summer where the state was completely drought free for the first time in four years

That, coupled with the heavy precipitation over the summer, has made for a healthy reservoir stockpile that will likely buoy water levels this season, with Heath adding that he’s predicting runoff to be within 85% to 115% of the average. 


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Snow is expected to return this week, though it’s “not going to be of the same magnitude of what we just received,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Caitlyn Mensch.

Snow could begin falling during the day on Wednesday and through the night and into Thursday morning, with between 3-10 inches of accumulation in the coming days, Mensch said.

Forecasts on OpenSnow.com call for potentially even more snow in central and northern mountain areas. Founding meteorologist Joel Gratz wrote in a Jan. 16 blog post that total snowfall “should range from 2 to 5 inches across the southern mountains to 6 to 20 inches across the central and northern mountains.”

The deepest totals “will likely occur just north of Steamboat and in the West Elk mountains west of Crested Butte,” Gratz wrote. 

Longer-range forecasts show elevated precipitation in the weeks and months ahead. According to projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Colorado has a 33% to 40% chance of more precipitation than is usual for the months of January, February and March. 

A three-month projection by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Colorado has a moderate chance of receiving above-normal precipitation through March.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Courtesy image

While Heath said the “probabilities are in our favor,” there remains a lot of winter left. 

There are more than 80 days left until the statewide snowpack typically hits its peak, which is April 7, according to USDA data, though specific regions such as the Colorado Headwaters have later peaks. 

Between that time and even after, snowpack can surge or rapidly diminish based on conditions that are still too early to predict. 

Still, Heath said, “It’s looking better than it did several months ago.”


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