La Nina brought pessimistic forecasts ahead of Colorado’s ski season this year, but its three-year reign over the U.S. is over, for now, climatologists say. 

The global phenomenon historically means less snow for the Centennial State since storms often track north of Colorado’s mountains during La Nina, meteorologist Chad Gimmestad said, but as temperatures continue to change in the Pacific Ocean and the jet stream begins to drop toward the lower half of the U.S., Colorado could see a shift in its weather. 

“We may be headed toward an El Nino next winter, which is kind of the opposite pattern, which tends to put more snow in the south,” Gimmestad said, “and southern Colorado usually does well.”

Central Colorado, including Summit County, lies somewhere in the middle between the two major weather patterns, so it’s tough to tell what the shift will mean locally, Gimmestad said, but since “the best snow” often falls above Colorado during La Nina years, the shift away from La Nina is often applauded by Coloradans.

Technically, the current pattern is neutral, which usually equates to average precipitation and temperatures as the jet stream stabilizes.

So far this year, a majority of Colorado is above the 30-year median regarding its precipitation, and its snowpack is also above average, bucking the typical trends seen in a La Nina year.

But a closer look at the state’s basins shows that the southeast part of the state is currently below average, and Summit County’s snow-measuring sites are reporting a similar trend. A site on the northern end of the county in the Gore Range, just west of Green Mountain Reservoir, is currently sitting around 159% of the 30-year median while a site on the southern end near Hoosier Pass and the Park County border is only measuring totals around 93% of the 30-year median.

In total, however, the statewide trend of ample snowpack holds true in Summit County. The Blue River Basin, which is almost entirely in Summit County, sits at about 115% of the 30-year median.

Gimmestad said the recent storm delivered thick, heavy snow that helped boost the snowpack after it began to slide downward during February and early March.

“February was a little below average on the snowfall in Summit County,” Gimmestad said, “and so the snowpack numbers fell, but it wasn’t by a lot. A lot of sites went from near normal to 5% or 10% below normal, and then this storm last weekend pretty much erased that.”

As spring nears, chances grow for building up Colorado’s snowpack since spring storms often bring heavier snow due to rising temperatures. Gimmestad said when temperatures hover around the freezing point, the water content of the snow often increases.

“For Summit County, we’re about three-quarters of the way through the snow accumulation, so we’ve still got about a quarter of the snowpack to build here,” Gimmestad said.

Current forecasts from the National Weather Service of Denver/Boulder say Summit County and much of Colorado can expect snow to fall starting Wednesday. The front end of the storm could bring accumulations of up to 6 inches by Thursday night, according to National Weather Service reports for Copper Mountain.

Chances of snow will linger throughout the weekend, but snow totals have not been released as of Tuesday night.

There might be a period of intense snow for the northern and central mountains on Wednesday late afternoon or evening, and then from Wednesday evening onward, storm energy over the southern mountains and a wind from the northeast will bring the most snow to the southern mountains and mountains east of the divide.

Joel Gratz, founder and lead meteorologist at OpenSnow.com, says Wednesday morning could bring a mix of rain and snow, but conditions are likely to favor areas like Summit County as Thursday night nears.

“There might be a period of intense snow for the northern and central mountains on Wednesday late afternoon or evening, and then from Wednesday evening onward, storm energy over the southern mountains and a wind from the northeast will bring the most snow to the southern mountains and mountains east of the divide,” Gratz wrote in his daily blog.