Littwin: Why Bennet has slogged toward announcing support for the Iran-nuclear deal (column)
I’ve always thought it was a matter of time — or should I say timing? — before Michael Bennet pledged to support the Iran nuclear deal.
It could happen at any moment. Maybe it has happened already.
The other day I joked-Tweeted that I had Bennet as the 38th Democratic senator to commit in my Iran-nuclear-deal pool. The 34th Democrat assured an Obama veto would hold and the agreement would stand. That was Barbara Mikulski, who’s safely retiring. The 41st — if they get that far — would give Democrats enough votes for a successful filibuster, meaning the bill wouldn’t even make it to the Senate floor and Mitch McConnell would have another very bad day.
I figured 38 was a relatively safe slot for Bennet, who must hope to draw as little attention as possible to his vote. As I write this, the pro-Obama-deal vote count is up to 37, and I’m hearing that Bennet will announce his vote very soon.
So, I may have a winner. And Bennet? Well, that’s a tougher call. As he knows, it’s basically a lose-lose proposition politically no matter how you vote on this deal in a swing state like Colorado.
He could vote either way. And yet, I’d be shocked if Bennet didn’t support the plan — and not just because Gary Hart leaked to the world that Bennet was leaning toward supporting it. Maybe Hart went rogue. I don’t know.
Here’s what I do know and have known for months:
If Congress had rejected the agreement, it would have been a catastrophe, diplomatically, strategically, politically and in a dozen other ways. And even though Bennet is regularly assumed to be the most vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbent running in 2016 — and Republicans, if they ever get a legitimate candidate, would welcome this chance to frame Bennet as an Obama acolyte — I don’t see where Bennet has a choice.
Rejection would have meant a betrayal of America’s partners in the deal — Britain, Germany, Russia, China, France. They’re the same partners who stuck out their collective neck first to impose the tough sanctions that forced Iran to negotiate seriously and then to keep up the pressure to make them finish the deal. I’m no expert, but the experts I read have said there is no chance — as in none — that sanctions would be reimposed if the deal goes down. I’ll accept the words of Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar, the bipartisan ex-senators who are experts in all things nuclear. Writing in support of the agreement in Politico, they said that to think otherwise is to live “in a dream world.”
But more crucially and in a much worse dream, rejection would have meant a likely showdown with Iran — Iran pushing to create a weapon, America forced to drop bombs on the nuclear sites. The deal is meant to stop Iran from developing a bomb for 15 years. How many rounds of nuclear-site-bombing would that cover?
Yes, Iran will still be a sponsor of terror and, yes, it will have more money to put to bad use. But however many senators Bibi Netanyahu calls, the prospect of war doesn’t change. And neither does the fact that the people calling most forcefully to reject the agreement are dependably those who pushed hardest to go to war in Iraq. And if the agreement does, in fact, keep Iran from developing a bomb for 15 years, who wouldn’t take that chance?
I don’t trust the Iranians. Who would? But imagine if you’re the Iranians and you’re thinking the next president could be Donald “Kurds or Quds” Trump.
When the Bennet people keep saying the senator is “undecided,” it always sounds to me as if he’s only undecided about when to announce his position. Let’s just say there has been time to study the issue. In fact, there’s been enough time for Bennet, a smart guy, to study it and then write a thesis on it. And now that the matter is basically decided, Bennet is forced to choose between supporting the deal or finding an explanation for how he ended up on the same side as those coming to town for the Cruz/Trump rally. Like I said, he doesn’t really have a choice.
We’ve seen how easy it is for a senator to look unserious on Iran. Cory Gardner, you recall, was one of the Senate GOP’s Tehran 47 who sent that letter to the Iranian mullahs advising them that Republicans would undercut any deal Obama made with them. And that was before there was an agreement. Bennet can at least say he actually gave some thought to his position.
And the Democrats who have come late to the deal have provided Bennet a path. You say the deal is “imperfect” or “flawed” or “deeply flawed,” but still better than no deal. In announcing his support, Cory Booker went for “deeply flawed.” Mark Warner went for “imperfect,” Heidi Heitkamp for “not perfect.”
You can wonder which description Bennet will choose. It’s much easier to predict how he will vote.
Mike Littwin writes a column for the Colorado Independent.
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