Letter to the editor: Russian climate models more accurate for prediction purposes | SummitDaily.com

Letter to the editor: Russian climate models more accurate for prediction purposes

Ralph Ragsdale

When the global warming controversy began, involved scientists published a graphic: a chart/plot showing that the atmosphere or ocean temperature (I don’t remember which, but it is immaterial now) is increasing so fast lately that the plot resembled a hockey stick.

In less than a day, it was discovered that the authors had used a technique called parameterizing in their work. In a two-dimensional application, the technique consists of selecting two distant points in a point cluster and drawing a line between them, arbitrarily ignoring other data points. Unfortunately, these scientists overdid it by drawing two lines end to end with a sharp turn to support their theory of an accelerating warming trend. A method called least squares regression would have been much more accurate but would not have indicated the sharp temperature rise they wanted to show. It’s possible they used least squares regression and then fudged the result. In any case, they did what we ordinary folks know as cooking the books.

These same scientists were accused of controlling what could be published and had systematically denied the publications of opposing views. Once exposed, those involved in the subterfuge were immediately ostracized by their peers. Unsure of the continued value of the word “warming“ to the cause, the movement promoters pivoted to climate change and continued to beat the drum.

Parameterizing climate data began in Europe in the 1970s. We are told that the Russians have not parameterized climate data. Therefore, their current models have proven more accurate for prediction purposes. You may be uncomfortable knowing that we must depend on the Russians for such information. Oh, well. We depended on the Germans for rocket know-how and the Japanese for automobile quality. And they were both our enemies in World War II. So what’s new?

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