We all got a lesson in Economics 101 over the last several years, starting with the arrival of COVID-19 into our lives. With lockdowns implemented across the country, many businesses folded due to the lack of customers. For those who were able to stay open, the dearth of labor made daily operations a challenge to say the least. The extra dollars added to unemployment benefits and the checks that the federal government sent to many citizens, employed and unemployed, made going back to work optional for some. And so, the competition among businesses for workers willing to wear masks all day and brave an uncertain health environment drove wages up. This rise in wages also contributed to increases in prices for goods and services as business owners needed to cover the increased costs to their production inputs.

This lesson isn’t theoretical to me. As an IT manager, I recall vividly the difficulty in hiring and keeping help desk staff during this period. Competition for human resources was fierce in that industry at the time, and my firm wasn’t alone in offering underqualified candidates’ salaries that only a year or two earlier were reserved for either long-time employees or highly experienced applicants. Regardless, our firm did well during most of that period as our services were still in demand by clients and they were willing to pay whatever it took to obtain them.

If the U.S. embarks on a program of mass deportation of undocumented workers, this scenario is likely to play out again. Locales like Summit County where the labor from such folks undergirds a large part of our economy, will be susceptible to the economic repercussions of such a program. Undocumented immigrants are present in our retail, hospitality, and construction industries, and we’ve come to rely on them to keep those businesses up and humming. Across Colorado they’re also a big part of the workforce that drives our agricultural commerce, working in the fields and in the slaughterhouses, helping to support an industry that brought $9 billion into our state in 2022.

The end result of shrinking our labor pool will be inflation due to rising wages and greater competition for fewer available goods and services, here and across the country. This, after the Federal Reserve spent the last several years pricing folks out of the housing market via increased interest rates in an attempt to tame the inflation beast. Inflation will raise prices at the grocery store as labor shortages wreak havoc in field production, processing plants, and in supermarkets. Your sub at the sandwich shop will cost more as will meals at sit down restaurants. Looking to get away for a bit? You’re gonna pay more for your stay at that hotel or Airbnb.

Some will argue that this shortage in labor will result in more money in the pockets of workers unaffected by the deportations. This may be true, but those same workers will also of course be paying more for the goods and services they consume, making their increases in wages a wash at best. Others may claim that this deportation program will have a positive effect on available housing, an issue that Summit County struggles with. Given that one of the ways we’re currently addressing this issue is through new construction, increased labor costs in that industry will slow the rate at which units are built and raise the prices for new housing. And while there may be a rise in availability of existing rental units due to the deportation of the folks who formerly occupied them, will it be enough to mollify the demand in our area? Maybe, but there’s no reason to believe that increased availability would lower the rent landlords charge, as they too will be affected by the inflationary pressures deportations create.

This only addresses the economic pain that mass deportations would cause, saying nothing of the societal costs of such a program. Many of us have come to know some of these undocumented immigrants and appreciate them as friends, neighbors and coworkers. Imagine those same folks snatched from their homes and detained in deportation camps, evoking reminders of the Japanese internment camps in the U.S. during WWII, one of which was in Colorado. Separating children from their families may be an effective deterrent for many border crossers, but it reflects poorly on a society that considers itself a beacon for human rights across the world.

I am not saying that illegal immigration doesn’t need to be addressed. It does but should be addressed comprehensively, including stopping illegal border crossings, identifying undocumented immigrants and deporting those who pose a danger to our communities. Those who aren’t a risk and have been contributing economically through payroll taxes should be set on a path towards citizenship. However, priority on that citizenship path needs to be given to those already in the legal immigration system pipeline and will doubtless require expediting improvements to those systems. This is a tall order that will require extensive bipartisan cooperation at all levels and the willingness to abandon the weaponization of immigration as a political issue.  

Tony Jones' column "Everything in Moderation" publishes biweekly on Thursdays in the Summit Daily News. Jones is a veteran of the IT industry and has worked in the public and private sectors. He lives part-time in Summit County and Denver. Contact him at eimsummit@gmail.com.