The Republican primary for Colorado governor is teetering on a knife’s edge, with state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer narrowly leading minister Victor Marx by less than a quarter of a percentage point, according to preliminary results as of 2 p.m. Wednesday, July 1. 

Marx has steadily been cutting into Kirkmeyer’s early razor-thin lead from election night and into Wednesday morning, as ballots continue to be counuted. He now trails by fewer than a thousand votes. Of the more than 470,000 ballots cast, Kirkmeyer was winning nearly 39.9% of the vote to Marx’s 39.7%. State Rep. Scott Bottoms was in a distant third place with just over 20% of the vote. 

The Associated Press estimated that 84% of ballots had been counted in the race as of 2 p.m. on Wednesday. 

The close results come despite Marx’s commanding fundraising lead over both his opponents and a poll commissioned by a super PAC supporting his campaign that showed Marx as the race’s clear frontrunner. 

Neither candidate provided a comment on Wednesday when asked through their spokespeople. During their respective watch parties on election night, both projected confidence as the results rolled in, showing a tight race. 

“I think we all know that tonight is not the finish line, that it’s the starting line, and I’ve got to tell you, I look forward to debating the future of Colorado, of our state, with Phil Weiser,” Kirkmeyer said of Weiser, who the Associated Press declared the winner of the Democratic primary shortly before 8 p.m. Tuesday. 

“Somebody asked me, ‘Are you worried?'” Marx told a crowd of supporters Tuesday night. “I’m like, ‘No.’ We’ve run a campaign that has inspired thousands — tens of thousands. It’s incredible. We have stood up against the establishment.”

In social media statements on Wednesday, Kirkmeyer and Marx said they were focused on curing ballots, which allows voters to fix issues, such as their ballot signature or ID, that may have prevented their vote from being counted. 

Colorado voters have until July 8 to cure their ballots for the primary. 

The race could also face an automatic recount if the final margin of victory is close enough. In Colorado, a recount is triggered when the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% of the leading candidate’s vote total. 

In Kirkmeyer and Marx’s case, the margin stood at 0.3% as of 2 p.m. on Wednesday. 

Establishment candidate versus political outsider 

The winner of the GOP primary will face an uphill battle in November’s general election. Colorado hasn’t elected a Republican governor since Bill Owens in 2002, with the state’s electorate continuing to shift more blue in the years since. 

Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat who cannot run for reelection this year because of term limits, won his first election in 2018 by a more than 10-percentage-point margin. He was reelected in 2022 by nearly 20 percentage points. 

Kirkemyer focused much of her campaign for governor on experience, framing herself against Marx and Bottoms as a proven conservative leader with a strong legislative record. 

She is one of just two Republicans in the legislature who serve with four Democrats on the Joint Budget Committee, which writes the state’s annual multibillion-dollar budget. Before becoming a state senator in 2021, Kirkmeyer served two decades as a Weld County commissioner, during which time she supported a controversial 2013 ballot measure that asked voters in 11 northern Colorado counties whether they should pursue secession and form their own state. It failed to pass. 

Kirkmeyer also worked in the administration of former Gov. Bill Owens — the last Republican governor of Colorado — from 2001 to 2006. And she was the Republican nominee in 2022 for Colorado’s newly created 8th Congressional District, which she narrowly lost to Democrat Yadira Caraveo. 

Marx is a Marine Corps veteran who leads a nonprofit, All Things Possible Ministries, that focuses on humanitarian work primarily in the Middle East and South Asia. He has positioned himself as an anti-establishment political newcomer willing to take on the status quo, something Marx said resonated with voters and helped propel his campaign. 

Marx has faced criticism from his opponents and questions from reporters about claims he has made about his life, which have garnered national media attention. Marx said he was forced by his stepfather to shoot and kill a man at the age of 7. In an interview with 9News reporter Kyle Clark, part of which was featured in a recent segment by late-night show host John Oliver, Marx inferred that he has killed people in self-defense during his missionary work, but would not say how many people. 

Other claims made by Marx include calling in an airstrike to kill ISIS fighters, being the first American to enter Gaza after war broke out with Israel, and stopping human smuggling at the U.S.-Mexico border. Marx’s opponents labeled him a liar who makes up “tall tales.” 

Marx defended those critiques in a previous interview, saying, “There’s far more evidence out there of who I am, what I’ve done, decades of it. But some who don’t want me and know that I’m a threat, all they can do is make accusatory remarks.”

Tight race despite Marx’s fundraising advantage 

Marx built a commanding fundraising lead over Kirkmeyer and Bottoms throughout the primary campaign, with $2,926,865 raised and $2,759,157 spent as of June 29, according to filings with the secretary of state. 

He was also aided by two super PACs, Victory for Colorado, which raised and spent $133,924, and Freedom IEC, which raised $502,930 and spent $481,372. 

In comparison, Kirkemyer raised $655,232 and spent $654,922. She was also supported by a super PAC, Colorado Strong, which spent $343,716 to boost her campaign. Bottoms, who did not have any super PAC support, raised $240,498 and spent $235,466.