Prior to the chief operating officers’ presentations at this year’s Ski Area COO Summit on Friday, Oct. 3, Daniel Leifeld of Key Data was welcomed to deliver the annual tourism outlook.

Speaking in front of a packed Keystone Conference Center, Leifeld helped break down what the next six months may look like for the county in less than 10 minutes. 

“One of the coolest things about vacation rentals is that it is a great economic leading indicator for a destination,” Leifeld said. “People book vacation rentals really far out, and they are far less likely to cancel those reservations.”

Despite the economic uncertainty and sentiment of potential travelers, Leifeld is seeing that 20% of this upcoming ski season in Summit County is already booked.

“When we look at what is going on in Summit County this year, we can see that occupancy is 1% (above) where it was last year at this time,” Leifeld said. “This is pacing data. This is where we were as of the same day last year.”

Summit County is also trending ahead in terms of the average daily rate compared to last year at this time. While last October the average daily rate was just over the $500 mark at $509, the average daily rate ahead of the 2025-26 season has ballooned by 2.3% to $521.

This year marks the highest the average daily rate has been since 2023, when the average rate was $529.

“It is not quite what it was in 2023, which was a massive year from an average daily rate perspective,” Leifeld said. “… As a result, revenue is up $5 (per booking) from last year. I know $5 doesn’t seem like much, but it is $5 for every property, for every night it is available. This is the strongest I have seen that data.”

In particular, the data points to strong booking windows during the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Leifeld also anticipates the weekend of Easter from April 3-5 to be a busy time for Summit County due to the holiday being two weeks earlier than last year.

“We have something big coming this year, and that is an Easter shift,” Leifeld said. “When Easter falls really matters, and it is two weeks earlier than it was last year. That two weeks earlier makes ski season a little more powerful.”

Overall, the data is not showing a weak time for occupancy in Summit County during the 2025-26 season. While occupancy will ebb and flow throughout the season, the data is trending above the adjusted paid occupancy percentage seen last winter.

The average stay lengths for Summit County bookings are trending longer than last winter. Instead of guests spending less time on vacation in response to the current economic climate, Key Data is seeing people staying slightly longer and therefore having more of an economic impact.

Based on pacing data, Leifeld is predicting that 17.5% of Summit County’s 2025-26 winter bookings will come from the state of Texas. Florida will follow as the second-highest feeder market at 10.3%, with Colorado ranking third at 8.1%. The fourth state to make Leifeld’s feeder market list is Mississippi at 4.5%, with Georgia sitting in fifth at 4.1%.

Looking at Colorado as a whole, Summit County is on pace with other markets across the Centennial state in terms of occupancy rates. 

“The very interesting thing here is that occupancy across the state is up,” Leifeld said. “Nobody is really down. Steamboat is a little bit down this year.”

Based on the early forecasts and data points, Leifeld expects this season to be a busy one in terms of travel to the ski resorts that make up Summit County.

“It is really, really powerful to see this data come in after a little bit of a disappointing year last year when compared to 2023,” Leifeld said. “But this is going to be a good year because we are pacing way, way ahead.”