Editor’s note: This story has been updated to clarify mathematical and meteorological terms.

Colorado’s statewide snowpack is less than a month away from its historic peak. Despite what has been a largely below-normal season, snowpack levels for this time of year are higher than they were during three of the four past years. 

According to data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service, statewide snowpack stood at 109% of the 30-year median as of Sunday, March 17. The normal peak is on April 7.

Snowpack is significantly lower than what it was on that same day in 2023 yet higher than in 2022, 2021 and 2020. 

Snowpack measures the amount of water held in the snow, which is referred to as the snow water equivalent. At its peak, Colorado’s statewide snowpack will reach a snow water equivalent of 17.5 inches — meaning there is typically 17.5 inches of liquid water frozen in the state’s snowfields.

As of March 17, the snow water equivalent was 15.2 inches. On that same day in 2023, it was 18.4, nearly a full inch above normal. In 2022, 2021 and 2020, the snow water equivalent stood at 14, 13.4 and 14.9 inches, respectively. 

For much of late 2023 and early 2024, snowpack levels consistently lagged below normal yet surged in mid-March. According to National Weather Service meteorologist Caitlyn Mensch, the recent winter storm that began Wednesday night and into Friday brought statewide levels from 104% to 108% in a matter of days. 

“I think March has been a beneficial season for us,” Mensch said. 

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Areas east of the Continental Divide, including Front Range communities, received some of the heaviest snowfall from last week’s storm, and that is represented in the snowpack, Mensch added. 

According to Natural Resources Conservation Service data, snowpack in the South Platte River Basin, which includes Denver and the foothills, was at 115% of the 30-year-median as of March 17. It also has a later peak of April 24. 

Snowpack in the Colorado Headwaters River Basin, which includes central and north mountains as well as parts of the Western Slope, stands at 108% of the 30-year-median.

The next best chance for snow accumulation may not be for another week, Mensch said. 

“At least through next weekend, we are trending towards a dryer pattern,” Mensch said. “That doesn’t mean we can’t see some showers for the central mountains, but nothing substantial or impactful.”

Projections from the Climate Prediction Center show much of Colorado has between a 55% and 60% chance of seeing above-average precipitation through April 12, right around when snowpack typically peaks. 

Mensch added that “periodic chances of snow showers” in between larger systems could boost the state’s snowpack — or at least prevent it from falling below normal ahead of its peak. 

In a March 17 blog post on OpenSnow.com, founding meteorologist Joel Gratz wrote that the next storm will likely arrive on Sunday, March 24, or on Monday, March 25.

“Looking further ahead, another storm should bring snow to Colorado sometime between Saturday, March 30 and the first few days of April,” Gratz wrote. 

Monitoring snowpack provides a critical understanding of what the state’s water supply will look like come summer. 

Division of Water Resources Engineer James Heath, in a previous interview with the Summit Daily News, said last season’s strong snowpack should help keep reservoirs full even if runoff levels aren’t quite as high this year. 

“With our reservoirs as full as they are, we may see a better river runoff than what is typical with this snowpack,” Heath said.